Game Over (Spoiler Alert: Romney Wins)

A long and winding post on the epistemology of entitlement has consumed all of the scant writing time I can afford.  I now have pages of meandering prose that will likely never appear on Yawper.  To get back in the rhythm of Yawping, I am going with a quick and dirty post.

Mitt Romney will be elected President on November 6.  Not only will Obama lose, but everyone on the East coast will be able to keep their usual bedtime.  The outcome will be determined and announced as soon as the West coast polls close.  Here are the three reasons why, in order of importance.

The economy.   Everything you own is worth less today than it was four years ago, especially your labor as evidenced by the more than $4,000 decline in household take-home income.  At the same time, everything you need costs more today than it did four years ago.  From a gallon of milk to a gallon of gas, prices have rocketed.  The average American finds himself with fewer dollars and needing more then before Obama took office.

That paragraph was paraphrased from a source I can no longer recall and cannot find.

The poll numbers.  Obama remains below the 50 percent mark in just about every poll.  This alone is fatal to an incumbent, but a recently determined trend makes it worse.  Over the past 30 years there is a consistent difference between the average poll numbers on the eve of an election and the actual vote percentages.  In short, the challenger finishes three to four points higher than the final poll, and the incumbent finishes one point lower.    This is consistent with the understanding that undecided voters break toward the challenger.

As I have argued before, I think Obama suffers more from this scenario than past candidates.  My theory is that a small number of people are loath to publicly (and that includes talking to a pollster) speak ill of Obama for fear that they would somehow be viewed a racist.  This artificially inflates Obama’s positive ratings.

The excitement.  Republicans are so eager to oust Obama that they could burst in anticipation.  Obama voters are far less motivated.  In fact, a new Washington University study suggests that the perception of freedom among black Americans is lower now than it was during Obama’s first year in office.  One jaw-dropping statistic from that study is that a mere 45.7 percent of blacks believe the “government would allow them to make a speech in public.”  Wrap your mind around that.  It is an amazing admission.

This means that Romney voters will show up on election.  Not sleet, nor hail, or a flying spaghetti monster will keep them away.  Simultaneously, Democrat voters traditionally are less reliable to show up on Election day.   With the euphoria of hope and change gone, Obama is in dire straits.

Cruelly, Obama finds himself in a conundrum.  Already trailing among moderate and unaligned voters, he needs to turn up the enthusiasm of his base.  This is why the past two debates have featured an aggressive (to the point of rude) Obama and Biden.  While this does energize his faithful it has the side effect of dissuading those middle-of-the-road undecided types.  In our center-right country, where the Republican base is always larger than the Democrat base, Obama’s efforts to invigorate his diehard supporters at this late point cinch the victory for Romney.  In contract Mitt need not woo conservatives.  He can stand calmly welcoming disaffected independents.

Things can always change, but at this point a Romney landslide is more likely than an Obama victory.


5 thoughts on “Game Over (Spoiler Alert: Romney Wins)

  1. I truly hope that you are right for the sake of this country. I don’t know if we can survive 4 more years of the same policies.

  2. Nice post, sir!

    Been writing on this for a while, Jason, ever since I read Wayne Allen Root’s breakdown of this same reasoning over the summer.
    And I agree.

    We still have work to do, certainly, but even if I was having a heart attack, I’d stop at the polling place to vote FIRST, and only THEN go to the hospital….

    This nightmare needs to end now.

  3. I pray you are correct but I dare not believe it for fear of jinxing the outcome. The Romney vote margin does have to be big enough to overcome the votes of all the dead people, illegal aliens and other Obama voters that the Chicago-style Obama campaign will manage to get counted. And lets not forget all the anti-Obama/pro-Romney military voters who will not even get a chance to vote.

  4. “This is consistent with the understanding that undecided voters break toward the challenger”

    This is so true… As Carl Rove likes to say, people know who the incumbent is. The undecided are more than likely undecided about if they will vote for the challenger or stay home, not if they will vote for the incumbent. They’ve already written that individual off.

    I can’t understand those that claim they could vote for either one and just haven’t decided yet. I can only assume they don’t pay any attention to either individuals political views because Obama and Romney are so completely different that you can’t honestly say either one works for me. That’s not possible.

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